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b-LOG: The Real Estate Ball Game

b-LOG: The Real Estate Ball Game
Date Posted: 04/09/2020

It’s the top of the first inning in the Niagara Region Real Estate League.

January 2020 is the home team, up against January 2019. With 2019 coming off a decent season, 2020 knows it has its work cut out for it.

The Niagara Region Baseball Stadium is packed with unmasked fans clutching all the expected food and beverages. Popcorn, beer, cracker jacks and hot dogs. “Man, I love baseball. It’s the most beautiful sport out there. Covid what?”

TOP of the 1st (January 2019)

2020 is the home team. January 2019 puts up some decent numbers in the top of the 1st.

Total Number of Sales comes strong out of the gates with 428 sales, a strong January by any comparison. Following up, Average Sale Price knocks a solid single and comes in at a comfortable $420,000.

Overall, not a bad start when looking back over previous games (years).

BOTTOM of the 1st (January 2020)

January 2020 looks ready to play.

Total Number of Sales steps up to the plate and absolutely laces the ball over the fence with 484 sales, an increase of over 13% compared to January 2019.

Likewise, the Average Sale Price flexes its muscles with a jump of 14.3% to $481,000 for the month.

Fair to say, the home crowd is loving the strong start as 2020 clearly takes a commanding lead to start the game.

TOP of the 2nd (Febuary 2020)

After getting knocked around in January, February 2019 doesn’t do much better. Total Number of Sales comes in with the lowest level for February in 5 years at just 451 sales. Meanwhile Average Sale Price showed some modest gains with an average sale price of $430,000.

It was a quick top of the 2nd though and here comes the home team.

BAM! Carrying on from the previous month, February 2020 gets off to a monster start with a huge 624 Total Number of Sales, up 38.4% over February 2019. In fact, February 2020 had the 2nd highest number of sales for February going back 5 years, and that’s going up against the epic years of 2016 and 2017.

BOTTOM of the 2nd (February 2020)

BAM again! Average Sale Price hits the deepest drive off all-time! For the first time EVER, the average sale price in Niagara cracks $500,000 to $501,000 in February 2020. The crowd is absolutely ecstatic, and the first 2 months of 2020 absolutely destroy the same 2 months in 2019.

TOP of the 3rd (March 2019)

2019 shows that it still has some fight in it. Total Number of Sales bounces back with 624 sales for the month. By no means a record, it is at least respectable in comparison to 2018 which we all know was not a strong team. …or year.

2020 has a coach’s visit to the mound.

The Average Sale Price in March 2019 connects for a single and a walk and bumps up a bit to $443,000 but nothing more.

We head to the bottom of the 3rd.

BOTTOM of the 3rd (March 2020)

Oh man, what an inning this is setting up to be.

The first 2 weeks of the month get off to a massive start with incredible sales pace and overall activity. The crowd is doing the wave. People are dancing on top of the dug-out. Complete strangers are high-fiving, with no gloves or hand sanitizer no less!

Fair to say, 2020 is feelin’ good to this point.

And just like that, everything changes. Things go sideways mid-way through and everyone in the stadium suddenly realizes this game is by no means over.

The bats go cold as sales almost grind to a halt. For the month of March 2020, Total Number of Sales end up down 11.9% compared to March 2019. New listings start to grind to a halt as everyone sits back in their seats as they try to figure out what just happened.

Meanwhile, the month had such a head of steam that the Average Sale Price still hovered just of $500,000 for the month.

The drama of the game. We go to the top of the 4th! (aka, April)

TOP of the 4th (April 2019)

It’s a regular spring market. They are knocking singles through the infield, a 2 base gapper and a walk and suddenly this is a different ball game.

With 764 total sales, April 2019 shows some serious battle back as it compares fairly well to the previous 5 years for the month of April. Average Sale Price steps to the plate and hops up to $462,000 as well.

BOTTOM of the 4th (April 2020)

A 4th inning that will live in infamy. The bats didn’t just go cold. They were virtually put back in their cubbies in the dug-out.

Total Number of Sales essentially hit into a triple play and plummeted by 62% as many of the fans shuffled out of the stadium. These are officially historic times.

New listings dropped by nearly 55% as well as the game really just stopped. The only people playing were those that were too deep into the game already. They had already purchased or sold and had to get from ‘a’ to ‘b’.

The upper end of the market stopped hitting even more as the median sale price dropped. With that, Average Sale Price did it’s best but still dropped to $480,000 for the month.

The game had just changed, and the home team was trying to figure out what to do.

TOP of the 5th (May 2019)

What a massive 4th inning. Suddenly 2019 was back on top as 2020 had completely lost its footing. Have we seen a game turn on a dime like that before?

With renewed confidence, May 2019 was a strong inning. Total Number of Sales was strong with 818 sales, the 3rd highest in the last 5 years. Still well off from the record setting 2016 but strong nonetheless.

Still making strong contact, the Average Sale Price in May 2019 bumped up a bit further to $470,000, up from $462,000 the month before.

Overall, a decent inning.

BOTTOM of the 5th (May 2020)

Still reeling from the previous month, May 2020 is really just a month to find some stable footing. Make some contact, don’t make any mistakes on the base path and stop the bleeding.

After posting 293 sales in April 2020, May 2020 puts up a reasonable 524 but that was still off 36% from May 2019. Not as bad as April, but clearly 2019 was still winning the sales volume game.

Average Sale Price steps up the plate though and knocks a ball over the left field wall on a hop for a ground rule double. The crowd starts to pay a bit more attention.

An all-time monthly record, May 2020 posts an average sale price of $509,000, up an impressive 8.3% over May 2019.

Maybe this ball game isn’t over yet?

TOP of the 6th (June 2019)

In the tail end of the spring market, June 2019 makes some decent contact with 753 sales, but that’s only good for 4th place in the last 5 years. They’ll have to do better.

Average Sale Price steps up to the plate and absolutely lays a stinker with a nearly 4% drop from the previous month, settling in at $453,000.

The crowd is on its feet as they can feel something special is about to happen. Hey…that’s weird. They’re all wearing masks…

Anyway, here we go to the bottom of the 6th.

BOTTOM of the 6th (June 2020)

The home team starts to get their swagger back. They seem to be feeling it. The tunes are pumping, the crowd is trying to get the dreaded wave going. Here comes Total Number of Sales to the plate.

Are you kidding me?

An absolute laser over the left field wall with 855 sales, good for 2nd place in the last 5 years for the month of June. You can feel the change of momentum as 2019 sends out the coach for another visit to the mound.

There is a comeback brewing.

Average Sale Price steps up to the plate and with massive pent-up aggression and a return of the high-end of the market posts a staggering average sale price of $548,000. That is an increase of 21% compared to June 2019. And an absolute new record.

The market is electric as the crowd files back in. Masks still on but they’re back in their seats.

TOP of the 7th (July 2019)

We have got ourselves a ball game folks.

Total Number of Sales in July 2019 came out and smoked a double down the left field line with 788 sales, good for 2nd place in the last 5 years for the month of July. Compared to the same month in 2018, July 2019 was up 23%.

This year is not going to go away quietly.

Average Sale Price is up next and posts a modest gain after June 2019’s loss. July 2019 puts up $462,000 for an average sale price, up about $50,000 from July 2018.

It’s stretch time!

Everyone in the stands gets on their feet for everyone’s favourite “Take me out to the balllllll game…”

Fast forward 4 minutes….

BOTTOM of the 7th (July 2020)

Will 2020 build on its forward momentum as the market showed some serious bounce back in June?

It sure does.

Total Number of Sales steps up and July 2020 sets an all-time record with 1,075 sales for the month, a number we’ve never seen before. For those keeping score, which is all of you, that is a monthly jump of 36.4% over July 2019. A simply astounding statistic.

The bullpen door opens. The coach has seen enough as the long reliever makes his way to the mound. After dropping 62% in April, only 3 months later we are seeing nearly 40% gains.

As if that isn’t enough, Average Sale Price steps up to the plate and demolishes a ball into the 3rd level with an average sale price of $580,000 for July 2020. That is an increase of $118,000 over July 2019. Partly due to pent-up demand in the $700+ bracket, this jump in the average is eyebrow raising, even to the most loyal fans of the game.

Will 2020 regain the lead? Let’s head to the 8th.

TOP of the 8th (August 2019)

Afterr a strong month of July, August 2019 keeps the momentum going with 770 sales, good for 2nd place in the previous 5 years for the month of August. Pretty good all around. A single, a walk, a double play

Average Sale Price swings and misses though with an average sale price of $458,000, down a notch from the previous month.

The coach shakes his head. He has seen this story before…and 2020 knows it. To the bottom of the 8th we go.

BOTTOM of the 8th (August 2020)

Still riding the highs of the previous inning, Total Number of Sales continues its hot bat with 1,026 sales, up a monster 33.2% from August 2019. In fact, no other month of August has even come close to August 2020.

The masked bandits in the stadium are on their feet and lovin’ it. The tide has turned, and everyone knows it.

2019 goes to the bullpen yet again to try to stop this onslaught.

Average Sales Price steps up. After the massive bottom of the 7th (July 2020), the average sale price pulls back a notch to $570,000 (from $580,000 the previous month). That’s ok though. The crowd knows that this game is well in hand.

You can’t expect that kind of production every month.

TOP of the 9th (September 2019)

Typically, a bit of a calmer month, September 2019 was fairly strong. The Total Number of Sales put up a respectable 633 sales, good for 3rd place in the last 5 years for September.

The average sale price popped back up to spring market levels with an average of $467,000 for September 2019.

So, here we are in the middle of the 9th. Let’s check the score before the home team comes back to the plate:

Game Summary:

After getting off to an incredible start, 2020 took some serious steps back in March, April and May. The year definitely showed its resolve though as they regrouped and came out swinging for the fences in June, July and August.

As quoted from July: “yeah, we saw April really struggle there but we’re a team. We pick each other up when things aren’t going well so I was glad to contribute tonight.”

What will happen the rest of the year? Will we have extra innings?

Only time will tell. We’ll keep our eye on things though and keep you up to date with the latest scores and stats.

Questions about real estate? Or baseball?

We’re here and ready to chat anytime.